Nokia has not measured up well in Smartphone competition lately. The successes have been few and far between. The last major splash was E 71, which recieved a good response from certain parts of the market. The only other Nokia smartphone that has been on the scene is N 95 8GB. Apart from these two N 85, N 79, E 66 and N 96 have not been the major quakers of the Smartphone scene!
In line with the recession market, Nokia's results were a tad dissapointing in Q4, 2008 and apart from the market share loss, a major criticism it faced was the lack of a good smartphone portfolio. Understandably, Nokia would desire 5800 (code named Tube), its iPhone answer to do well! There has been some major marketing and PR effort behind the Tube, which was launched in late 2008! For Nokia, a lot rides on this phone before N 97, takes centrestage, in the summer of 2009.
It was in this context that i was baffled when i read new sreports of Nokia shipping out 1 million 5800 in 3 months of launch!
http://www.hardwarezone.com/news/view.php?id=12603&cid=9
http://www.mobilemonday.net/news/nokia-5800-xpressmusic-shipments-reach-1-million
http://www.nokia.com/A4136001?newsid=1284621
http://www.slashphone.com/nokia-5800-xpressmusic-shipments-reach-1-million-milestone-284257
That is some feat, considering that 36.5 million Smartphones sold in Q3, 2008 (Gartner UK). A million phones is 3% Smartphone market share from one model! Nokia in Q3,2008 shipped a little over 15 million smartphones. A million 5800s is some number. If that be true, then one can expect Nokia upturning tables and smartphone market shares in Q1, 2009. It would be a tribute again to Nokia's ability to replicate a trend and making a platform out of it and selling it cheap to take it to the masses!
However, if this be a channel and customer upstocking gambit, then there are considerable risks involved. It would be walking back and undoing of Nokia's lean supply chain strategem. The channels and customers could clog up which would have a back lash specially in a downturn economy. Consider this, a quarter of the smart phone volumes come from US (9.2 million smart phones sold in US, 36.5 million smart phones world over). Nokia 5800 has no US footprint in terms of a carrier and would sell at $500 from stores! Demand world over is likely to slacken even more and there are more smart phone vendors out there trying for their piece of the cake!
So, while Nokia has shown confidence on the product by shipping a million units, there may yet be many pitfalls!It could be the make or break for the world no 1!
It took Apple 74 days to get to 1 million iPhones. If Nokia is to be believed, 5800 Tube is doing as much in almost same time. We will await the results!
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