Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Is Indian market ready to take 3G services????

Linked In Posting on Success factors for 3G in India

http://www.linkedin.com/answers?viewQuestion=&questionID=325889&askerID=11562313&browseIdx=11&sik=1222255763110&goback=%2Each_TCH*4ITS*4TCI%2Eabq_2_1222255763110_n_o_TCH*4ITS*4TCI&report%2Esuccess=vfLh7ZiQxNtkwQoO3efsNN1zAgQ8WXmCT24lKBBmlHq_pfcN7JydQUoVP_zdv4b8

I have read thru all the other answers. As a marketeer and thru frequent interactions with consumers, my feel is that the Urban population is READY for 3G. Infact the face of Indian telecomunications would be 3G services in towns and WiMAX in rural areas and that would happen in about 4 years from now.

However, in the present context, there are two stumbling blocks as i see it.
1. 3G Licensing fees are exorbitantly price by DoT. Even with infrastructure sharing, Operators have doubts about the cash flows and the RoIs in the near term.
2. Number Portability, as and when it happens, would reduce customer stickiness to the Operator. The operators are wary of this and the inability to estimate the churn may be translating into paralysis and inaction in terms of new investments.

On the flip side
1. 3G would the mantra to counter VoIP revolution when that happens. Ironically due the lobby Raj, VoIP in India depends on the success of 3G in India.
2. 3G would be a tool to increase ARPUs for Telcos.

Status of VoIP regulation in India

VoIP and its introduction is an eagerly anticipated event in the Industry. My Take in response to a linked in question...
http://www.linkedin.com/answers?viewQuestion=&questionID=327771&askerID=4765290&browseIdx=0&sik=&report%2Esuccess=vfLh7ZiQxNtkwQoO3efsNN1zAgQ8WXmCT24lKBBmlHq_pfcN7JydQUoVP_zdv4b8


While TRAI's recomndations have been tabled at the DoT, it would be difficult to provide any fixed time frame. For sure, there is some amount of lobbying from the Telecom Operators who see VoIP as a threat to already wafer thin profits. DoT is also under no hurry to displease this Cartel. To answer your question, you can expect to see some action on VoIP after the auction of 3G services (expected end of this year). Two things more that you must also factor in: Given High 3G Licensing fees in face of uncertain cash flows, the operators are not too keen on betting big money in 3G. The other thing is about Number Portability which would reduce the stickiness of the customers to these telecom operators. In the face of these two variables, which impact profitability of the operators, 3G licensing is still in some zone of uncertainity.3G Licensing would directly impact VoIP! Hence there are quite a few variables influencing VoIP introduction in India.

What do you think will be the most transformational Telco products and services within the next 4 years?

My first attempt to be a subject expert in the industry that i work for. This post was for Linked In Answer:
http://www.linkedin.com/answers?viewQuestion=&questionID=290102&askerID=1694000&browseIdx=6&sik=1222237925237&goback=%2Each_TCH*4ITS*4TCI%2Eabq_1_1222237925237_n_o_TCH*4ITS*4TCI&report%2Esuccess=vfLh7ZiQxNtkwQoO3efsNN1zAgQ8WXmCT24lKBBmlHq_pfcN7JydQUoVP_zdv4b8

Just happened to read through all the answers provided. My view is not divergent and hence nothing new. Rather i would converge upon three points in terms of MOST TRANSFORMATIONAL TELCO PRODUCTS AND SERVICES WITHIN THE NEXT 4 YEARS:
1. Since we are talking products, product architecture and design is the first domain. From base level products designs and UI, the evolution to a touch based concept is already unfolding. In times to come the Evolution may be from Touch --> Telekinetic forms (using Alpha and Beta Brain waves as inputs, already experimented succesfully); It could be AI into the phones which responds to user moods and habits; It could be a Phone that sits in your watch or button or Spectacles ( Nokia was experimenting Morph concept sometime back --> The ultimate in Convergence).
2. The second level of development would be the way the phones would integrate communities and provide information to people. It could start wit the Facebook integration, to Music share, high speed internet applications and content downloads. On a wider scale, Mobile Commerce, Emerging market aplications (such as weather forecasts, commodity rates to everyday rates for selling and buying stuff), GPS based navigation systems and tracking will impact the citien millions
3. Then there is Technology evolution enabling ifferent and better solutions to the same question of better voice, image and data conectivity. The point to make here is the technology that will balance cost, convenience and yet deliver more the threshold level of user expectations will rule th roost.
Between these three domains you can have a 3D plain. Customers and needs will exit in different axes of the plain and there would be many solutions/technologies to address these needs. Cost would be a very important factor to balance the development versus spread of these new trends.