Thursday, July 30, 2009

Social Networking Figures double (2005 - 2007)

This doesnot come as a surprise after the explosive growths registered by Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn and others. According to a Forrester research, the number of social networking users in USA has doubled since 2007.

55.6 million Users – or just less than 1/3rd of the population – in the US now visit social networks at least monthly. That’s up from just 15 percent of adults in 2007, and around 18 percent last year.


At that level, social networking is now more popular than instant messaging among adults, which 54.3 million people report using. However, watching video, online shopping, and email are still more widely used than social networks.

WiMAX: Last mile internet connectivity in difficult to access places may be its USP!

The number of people grabbing their Internet access through WiMax is expected to jump to 50 million by 2014, says Juniper Research.The growth in WiMax stems from areas unreachable or unserved by broadband cable or DSL thus underlining the importance of WiMAX as a last mail broadband alternative.

WiMax is a wireless technology that delivers broadband speeds over the last mile, ideal for locations where cabling is not available or feasible. Faster than current wireless 3G technology, WiMax can also serve large metropolitan areas as it covers a wider area than conventional Wi-Fi. Referenced in the report, the most advanced WiMax standard, WiMAX 802.16e, delivers greater throughput than other WiMax standards.

While large-scale WiMax deployments have been delayed, many providers have so far been successful in countries ranging from Pakistan to the U.S. In the US,4G Clearwire wireless networks used by Sprint, Comcast, and other providers, run over WiMax.

The global deployment of WiMax will drive its growth. The larger number of WiMax subscribers will be in the Far East and China region, says the report, due to that area’s early adoption of the technology.WiMax gains in Western Europe and, to a lesser degree North America, will occur in areas underserved by DSL. Growth in Africa and the Middle East is likely to surpass that of Western Europe, says Juniper, gaining 15 percent of the overall WiMax subscriber base by 2014.

“WiMAX 16e will have opportunities not just in developing countries, but also areas of developed countries where the DSL coverage is weak or nonexistent,” said Howard Wilcox, the author of the report. “The key for the industry ecosystem now is to overcome the challenges and ensure trials evolve into commercial services quickly.”

Profiling the slide at Nokia (Part III)

Dan Carter’s blog says it all. http://www.worldofnokia.co.uk/2009/07/nokia-loosing-its-grip/

The blog illustrates how Nokia looses the big game from a consumer perspective, with the most vociferous fans now slowing conceeding to the fact that Nokia’s smartphone challenge is outplayed and outsmarted by other worthy competitors.

To quote Dan,” Through thick and thin I have been promoting Nokia, Blogging about Nokia, Talking about Nokia and Buying Nokia!. However more and more recently my eyes are being opened to the rest of the Smartphone world and it is clear to me there are other phones out there that will do the job I need them to do, and maybe in some cases better?.”

Dan adds, “The problem I seem to have is with the Symbian OS not evolving enough compared to other manufacturers. Apart from some transitions and Feature Pack updates the OS looks the same today as it did 3 years back with the N95.”

The last when Nokia was able to make waves with its smartphone was the N 95. However, there after, N 78, N 79, N 82, N 85, N 86, N 96 and now the N 97 havent really given audience the kicks they were worth! Another user Ashutosh Timary comments, “You can almost predict what nokia is going to churn out next and not only that, even without playing with the new device, you can almost feel the experience.”

HTC Hero with a new Android OS and ‘Sence’ system, is a very sexy looking OS with a great piece of hardware packaged in one phone. The Hero has a large touch screen, HSDPA, 5 Megapixel camera, 3.5mm headset jack and looks like a real multimedia phone.

Another prime case is that of iPhone 3GS which has been selling out all around the world despite being very over priced for the specification. The N97 beats the 3GS in pretty much every area apart from usability of the screen and the OS.

Does Nokia have any more smartphone winners in its portfolio? No probably.. All current Nokia devices seem recycled.

Nokia are starting to become boring with their same devices repackaged and using the same OS over and over again, especially when other manufacturers are doing such a good job at getting things right.
Ref: http://ronnie05.wordpress.com/2009/07/22/nokia-ii/;http://ronnie05.wordpress.com/2009/07/22/nokia-i/

Would MS Azure start a new new cloud price war?

Earlier today Microsoft unveiled it’s pricing model for its forthcoming Windows Azure cloud services platform. What’s interesting about the pricing model is that they seem to be taking direct aim at Amazon Web Services.

To recap, Amazon charges 12.5 cents per hour for a basic Windows Server instance in contrast Microsoft’s stated that their price will be 12 cents.They noted that the service will remain free until November. I should also point out that it still isn’t clear if comparing Windows Azure to Amazon’s Windows EC2 is a fair comparison given the rather drastic differences in functionality.

Microsoft calls Windows Azure a “cloud services operating system” that serves as the development, service hosting and service management environment for the Azure Platform. They’ve also said they will offer a private data center version of Azure that will be capable of being hosted within a “private cloud” context. This will be most likely as part of their upcoming virtual infrastructure platform “hyper-v” possibly as a virtual machine image. Currently to build applications and services on Windows Azure, developers can use their existing Microsoft Visual Studio 2008 expertise with the ability to easily run highly scalable ASP.NET Web applications or .NET code in the MS cloud.

Microsoft officials had previously indicated that Windows Azure pricing would be competitive, but the price differential may be more symbolic than material. At their published rates, if you ran a Window server in the cloud every hour of the day for an entire year, you’d save a mere $43.80 going with Microsoft. Indeed, if penny pinching is important, Amazon Web Services actually has a cheaper alternative, though it’s not Windows. Amazon charges 10 cents per hour for “small” virtualized Linux and Unix servers.”

The half cent price difference is quite certainly material for those running larger cloud application deployments. A few cents can quickly add up. The move indicates that Microsoft is certainly not afraid to subsidize its cloud pricing in order to take a larger piece of the cloud market and with the large cash reserves Microsoft is said to have, they can certainly afford to engage in a price war. The bigger question will be how other more closely related cloud platform providers will adjust their pricing models? Right now all signs are starting to point a cloud price war. Time will be the best judge!

iPhone users most satisfied lot (A US study)

Though Apple continues to hype the iPhone and the multitude of applications available through its App Store, iPhone users are indeed the most satisfied smartphone users and exhibit the strongest brand loyalty, according to a recent survey compiled by analytics firm Crowd Science.

Of those surveyed, 40 percent use a smartphone and one-third of those are iPhone users. The iPhone users gave Apple’s smartphone a 73 percent overall satisfaction rating, compared with a 52 percent satisfaction rating from users who had a BlackBerry device from Research In Motion and 41 percent who were satisfied using another smartphone.

Further, iPhone users plan to stick with the device, according to the survey. Fully 82 percent of current iPhone users would buy an iPhone again, compared with 39 percent of BlackBerry users who would purchase a BlackBerry again. Additionally, the survey found that 38 percent of non-iPhone users would switch to the iPhone for their next phone purchase, compared with 14 percent of non-BlackBerry users who said they would get a BlackBerry as their next phone. One final iPhone stat: Ninety-seven percent of current iPhone users surveyed said they would recommend the device to someone else.
Of the total sample, four out of ten use some type of smartphone and one-third of these use an iPhone.Among those possessing a smartphone, most use it for both business and personal purposes (71 percent), with only 3 percent who use it for business only.”
IPhone users exhibited higher overall satisfaction with their phone than Blackberry and other smartphone users

IPhone users exhibit a strong loyalty to the brand. An overwhelming majority of iPhone users (82 percent) would purchase an iPhone again. As for non-iPhone users, almost four-in-ten (38 percent) would switch to iPhone for their next purchase, while 14 percent of non-Blackberry users would switch to Blackberry for their next mobile phone purchase.

While there are irregularities in the data collection mechanism and iPhone users have been given more weightages (compared to Blackberry, which numerically is larger than the iPhone), the results could be looked at from a “directional” perspective.

Ref: http://www.fiercewireless.com/slideshow/numbers-iphone-brand-loyalty?img=2

How Microsoft is underprepared for next gen computers?

Microsoft’s Windows is still shipped on 97 per cent of all new PCs. Thanks to the emergence of new classes of portable, internet-connected devices, a potentially disruptive sea-change is now under way in the fastest-growing areas of personal computing and Windows is not exactly in the driver seat on this ground.

As a PC operating system, it turned out that the world did not need, or want, Linux. The ubiquity of Windows guaranteed that other software developers would write their programs to run on it, creating an effective barrier to entry for others trying to break into the market.

That market dynamic has also helped Microsoft to hold its ground so far on netbooks, the new class of small-scale machines that have been the sole bright spot in an otherwise shrinking PC market. While early netbooks came with Linux and were designed to act mainly as simple internet devices, they have since been recast as scaled-down versions of the familiar, software-heavy laptop.

Yet this victory has come at a cost, and has exposed a flaw in Microsoft’s development plans. With most netbooks incapable of running the Windows Vista code, it was forced to use the older Windows XP operating system. And with prices far lower than for standard laptops, Microsoft has already seen an erosion in the average price it gets for Windows.

A second phase of the netbook wars is now looming. Google’s Linux-based Chrome OS, announced this month and planned for the second half of next year, is designed to carry through on the original promise of netbooks: to let users do all their work on the web through a browser. The web is thus a platform for applications and the operating system becomes less relevant.


Other operating systems designed for the web are also in the works. The Linux and Intel open-source project, known as Moblin, will be available in a range of machines before the end of the year.

The backers of software platforms like these see netbooks as the thin end of the wedge. Getting a foothold on small laptops is the first step to expanding into a wider range of internet devices – including the emerging class of tablet computers and so-called mobile internet devices (MIDs) that many in the industry hope will eventually create a new personal computing market, between today’s PCs and smartphones. Maemo, Nokia’s Linux-based operating system for portable tablet computers, is also pitched at this market.

That convergence promises to bring another dimension to the emerging software platform war.

Smartphones have seen a wave of software innovation, with the emergence over the past two years of a number of new purpose-built platforms: Google’s Android, Palm’s Web OS and a version of Apple’s OSX for the iPhone.

Microsoft is suffering because some of its licensees are looking to do more business with Android.

Designed for the power-constrained world of mobiles, these smartphone operating systems could start to invade a bigger piece of the personal computing world – particularly if the low-power Arm processors on which they run move up into larger, netbook-style devices.

Even in this shifting world, though, the power of Windows could be a deciding factor. If it released a version of the new Windows 7 to run on Arm-based processors, Microsoft could still be well-positioned to ride the wave of new devices.


Refernce: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ec988a10-76e8-11de-b23c-00144feabdc0.html

Indian Telecom Story (Part XV): Net operating margins at Risk

An extension of an earlier post, which has discussed the problem of reducing operating margins for Telecom Operators in India in the of falling ARPUs and high operating expenditures; this post profiles the predicament for Airtel. If Airtel being such an established player in the market is facing a crunch in its operating margins, the performances of other marginal players and new comers could be under serious doubt!


Airtel registered a 17% YOY revenue increase. However, its quarterly sequential revenue growth seems to be tapping out at 1.19%. Thus the revenue growth is slowing down. Net profit is up 26% but that is mainly because of lower financial costs and spends. Operating profit margins are reduced from 30% in last year to 27% this year.


The concern for Airtel is that the growth in number of subscribers is hitting a plateau. With more competitors, the subscriber figures growth may actually dip. The ARPU has decreased 20.6% YOY. With both these numbers going south, it would be difficult for Airtel to keep up its performance in the next few quarters.
Applying the same analogy to other operators and the new comers, one would expect some congruence in the statuses. The overall market situation is same in all cases and thus the performances would not be very different for other operators. It is in this context one needs to evaluate the price discounting options that the new operators are resorting to. It may be a short cut to establishing a quick base but sustainability and profitability are very big questions. Couple that with the high initial spends of getting a toe hold in the market, the break even seems to be distant. Ask Virgin Mobile for validation.

Is it R.I.P Moore's Law? Big Blue doesnot think so!

Moore’s Law is named after Intel co-founder Gordon Moore, who in 1965 said a silicon chip’s number of transistors, and therefore its processing power, would double every 18 months. The longstanding high-tech principle that processor performance doubles every 18 months came under question last September, when Intel scientist Paul Packan published a paper that stated chip engineers hadn’t found ways around microprocessor design barriers for chips sets to be manufactured after this year. Since then, the Semiconductor Industry Association has predicted that chip performance will continue to increase over the next 15 years, but doubts about the physical limitations of silicon chips remain.
What Gordon said was the model is driven by the cost reductions that are allowed – the science takes the technology into more and more devices and the volume will explode because the cost comes down, so it is an economic model (more than just a scientific model).

Thus it looks as if the industry has reached a threshold point where the cost of making tools required to keep making smaller and smaller components has finally outstripped the ability of vendors to sell them profitably. Hence, is it R.I.P. Moore’s Law?

IBM doesn’t necessarily think it has — Big Blue says other things besides clock speed will work to increase performance.

IBM says it is taking a more holistic approach to its semiconductor research and development. Instead of focusing on clock speed, the company says it is deploying and developing a number of new processor technologies that do the job better.
  1. Alternate technology involves copper interconnects are more power-efficient conductors than the aluminum interconnects currently in wide use, meaning a chip will take less power and run at a lower temperature for the same clock speed.
  2. Another way to increase performance is to improve memory capacity and improve its ability to move more data faster to a processor. IBM this week announced new memory technology that increases the amount of data that can be stored in a memory chip. Lange said IBM has developed a way to break a memory density barrier — or SF82 (squared) barrier — by finding a way to completely immerse the memory trench, that part of its memory chip that stores data bits, in silicon and shrinking the size of the trench.
  3. Increasing memory capacity by making memory cell components smaller and increasing the amount that can be stored in a single chip makes it possible for IBM to build processors with larger amounts of integrated memory. Integrated memory cuts processing time because the chip can fetch data from close at hand, rather than having to reach out to the main memory of a system across a much slower bus. Bus speeds are lagging processor speeds by factors of four or five, a gap that isn’t likely to close any time soon.
  4. IBM is also working on improving network efficiency by implementing network processors, which it says can analyze data more quickly, for devices such as routers. These check the contents and destinations of packets through specially designed circuits rather than software, improving effectiveness, speed and reliability.
  5. In terms of advances that do directly affect pure clock speed, meanwhile, Lange said Big Blue has developed chips with features as close together as 0.05 microns in its labs.
  6. The current industry standard is 0.18 microns and will move to 0.13 microns next year and 0.10 microns in about 2003.

Ref:http://news.zdnet.co.uk/hardware/0,1000000091,2076881,00.htm; http://industry.bnet.com/technology/10002761/moores-law-reaching-statute-of-limitations/

No Future for Apps Stores? Web browsers is the way to go?

Apple customers may have downloaded 1.5bn applications from its AppStore in the past year for their iPhones and iPod touches, but the service does not represent the future for the mobile industry, according to Google. Vic Gundotra, Google Engineering vice president and developer evangelist, maintains that the web would win and users of mobile phones would get their information and entertainment from browsers in future. The case in favour of web based browsers is the lack of platform uniformity. Having different support for all of the different mobile platforms from Apple’s AppStore to those of the BlackBerry, Windows Mobile, Android and the many variations of the Nokia platform is nightmarish.

Google forecasts a move to incredibly powerful browsers, which would be platform independent. A vast number of applications can be delivered through the browser and there are huge cost savings by shifting to a single browser window from individual company based platforms.
Quoting Gundotra, “We believe the web has won and over the next several years, the browser, for economic reasons almost, will become the platform that matters and certainly that’s where Google is investing.”

Advances in the browser being introduced through HTML5 standards meant that web applications could tap features of particular phones such as their accelerometers. An example is Safari Webkit-based browser on the iPhone allowed positioning technology on the phone to be used and Google’s home page can now display where users are located. Webkit, which Apple had turned into an open-source project, was also powering the browsers on the Android and Palm operating systems.

While Steve Jobs had hinted two years earlier at open source development of a common platform. The timing then was not right. The rate of innovation in the browser [over the past 12 months] is surprising. Steve Jobs really did understand that, over the long term, it would be the web, and it looss like that is how things will play out.

http://www.mobithinking.com/blog/no-future-for-app-stores

http://blogs.ft.com/techblog/2009/07/app-stores-are-not-the-future-says-google/

Google's effort at offsetting Carbon

Google logo on search on the day of Solar eclipse (22nd July 2009)

Only a few days back, I had posted a blog on Yahoo’s efforts for Carbon off setting. http://ronnie05.wordpress.com/2009/07/20/9834/. Google is also following suit in terms of efforts to neutralize carbon footprint.


Ambient Cooling is one of the approaches highlighted in the article http://www.reuters.com/article/gwmTechnology/idUS338804957820090722. In its Belgium data centre, rather than using internal air-conditioning for cooling the hardware, the company is relying on the normally low atmospheric temperatures to provide all the free cooling its servers need. The climate in Belgium will support free cooling almost year-round, according to Google engineers, with temperatures rising above the acceptable range for free cooling about seven days per year on average. The average temperature in Brussels during summer reaches 66 to 71 degrees, while Google maintains its data centers at temperatures above 80 degrees. On days, when the atmospheric temperature is above the data centers temperature, Google will turn off equipment as needed in Belgium and shift computing load to other data centers.This approach is made possible by the scope of the company’s global network of data centers, which provide the ability to shift an entire data center’s workload to other facilities. As a result of its use of outside-air for cooling the data center, Google will save tens if not hundreds of thousands of dollars in cooling costs, while also cutting back on the greenhouse gas emissions tied to the electricity used to run the chillers.

Indian Telecom Story (Part XIV): Can pricing differentiate new Telco services?

Of late, the number of foreign operators who have entered the Indian shores is impressive. Global Operators like MTS, Etisalat, Sistema, Do Co Mo have started offering their services to consumers.

However, what is disappointing is that all of these operators have yet again taken the price route to establish themselves in the market. Sample Tata Do Co Mo in Karnataka/Bangalore for instance. They have innovated on the talk times, charging consumers for seconds of usage instead of minutes of usage. This squarely means that if I make a call for 3 minutes and 20 seconds through the network, Tata Do Co Mo charges me for 200 seconds of usage instead of 4 minutes. That is very good news to the consumer. A rough calculation and analysis of my call minutes showed me that over the last 24 hours or so, I had actually used 2381 call seconds, while my operator would be charging me for 59 minutes/ 2940 seconds of usage. Going by the Minutes of usage concept, I was paying for 10 minutes that I did not use. These were the residual seconds that I was charged for! That is a 19% waste of my money! The seconds of use is thus a terrific value to the consumer. No wonder than that Tata Do Co Mo had signed on 400,000 users in the first week of launch.

Now let’s flip it over from the business perspective. Many of the new entrants have deep pockets and hence are keeping the advertising and media happy with marketing spends. However, a deeper analysis leads me to think that the approach is likely to be very short term. Here are the reasons that I put forth for the same:

  1. Without Pan India presence it is very unlikely that these new entrants will find a lot of business segment consumers (who are typically high value)
  2. Thus these price based promotions will land them with a base of medium of low and medium value consumers.
  3. Even if we assume that this may attract new subscribers to the services, but the ARPUs will not be sustainable and profitable.
  4. Such promotions do not act as differentiators or entry barriers in the long term. It wont be long before Airtel, Vodafone, Reliance and older players follow suit leveling the ground.
  5. If anything, this tactic only serves to lower/break the floor prices of the services.

Lowering the cost of ownership has been extremely successful ploy in terms of expansion of the Indian Telecom markets. The ARPU today is around the theoretical $5 break point. In mature markets an ARPU under $5, does serious harm to the bottom-line. In a growing market like India, the strain of a decreasing ARPU may not be significantly visible presently. However, with markets maturing, the focus will shift from growth to sustainability. The new classes of consumers are mostly rural and their ARPU would be well below $5 (probably $3-3.5). Managing bottom-lines at such low levels of Revenue per user and increasing costs of acquisition will prove to be a challenge.

I had expected a higher degree of service innovation by the new players. I had expected that they we would see some exciting innovations around value delivery. It could have been Internet, VAS or the MVNO based delivery. By playing the price route, the new players seem to be playing it right to the incumbent’s advantage. I have always thought that in absence of compelling value propositions that the consumer is willing to pay a premium for, it is always cost that the consumers fall back upon. It seems that branded value services are one of the most obvious businesses that the current Telcos are missing to capitalize. Lets then wait for the discontinuity from the current price based business model to value based ones!

Apple: What Next?

Apple’s Q3 results have been very good! The thought is that this is Apple’s brightest hour and having hit the peak, there is no way but a gradual slide down. However there is more in the communication from Apple on how they let their own products cannibalize themselves and how they are innovating the future! Apple COO stops short of naming iTablet as the next from Apple Stable

Ref: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124820913514969595.html; http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124821056118269783.html; http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2009/07/21/live-blogging-apple-earnings-2/

Apple has been heaped with praises for its non-conformist strategy and super-hit portfolio of products which have upstaged the industry incumbents. The Q3 results declared this week have been Apple’s moment in history! Third-quarter sales rose to $8.34 billion, up from $7.46 billion a year ago, due in part to strong sales of the iPhone. Net income rose to $1.23 billion, up from $1.07 billion. Apple’s growth of 4% with IDC forecasting negative 3 percent and Gartner forecasting a negative 5 percent, puts them 7-9 points ahead of the market.



  1. Response to the new iPhone 3GS has been tremendous with over 1 million sold by the third day after its June 19th launch. Apple goes on record saying that they are currently unable to make enough iPhone 3GSs to meet demand and are working to address that.

  2. Apple registered outstanding sales of 2.6 million Macs setting a new June quarter record and nearly meeting the all time quarterly record.

  3. Apple sold 10.2 million iPods which was down from 11 million in the year ago quarter. There were two key reasons for this decline: First, we reduced channel inventory by over 400,000. Second, sales declined by 4% year-over-year.

  4. The iTunes store delivered another great quarter fueled by strong sales of music, video and apps.

  5. Apple retail stores hosted 38.6 million visitors during the quarter compared to 31.7 million visitors in the year-ago quarter –an increase of 22%.

  6. Apple’s app store has more than 65,000 apps, compared with 1,000 to 2,000 at the Nokia store. Apple thus has a substantial lead on apps.

There were a few significant announcements during the earnings call, which warrant attention.

The first point
The iPod growth story now appears to be tapping off. Shipments of iPods fell 7% from the first quarter to second. And iPod ASPs also declined, despite the growth of the more expensive iPod Touch.

Revenues from selling Mac computers actually fell 8% last quarter compared to a year ago. The company sold 4% more Macs than it did in the same period last year, at a lower price point.
Macs and iPods are slowing down and may be entering the declining plateau stage of their life cycles! Apple would have seen this coming, and the $99 iPhone would be cannibalizing the iPods, by design.

Secondly, if you read between the lines of Timothy Cook’s message, it appears that Apple has a trick up its sleeve. Quoting Apple COO, Timothy Cook

“I think some of the netbooks that are being delivered, or many of them, are very slow. They have software technology that is old. They don’t have a robust computing experience. They lack horse power. They have small displays and cramped key boards.”

Is this what Apple is going to spring upon Netbook manufacturers?

The invective makes you think that while Apple rails against the existing Netbook makers, may be, it has a net-book product that it plans to launch soon! Is this the Apple heralding its iTablet.

A study in contrast: Apple and Nokia

The numbers do justice to the sentiment towards both these companies at this time. Apple is clearly shinning bright and is the toast of the bourses.

Ref: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124821056118269783.html; http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2009/07/21results.html; http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124820913514969595.html; http://industry.bnet.com/technology/10002677/can-anyone-out-app-apple/

Even the staunchest critic would not count out Nokia but it surely seems that Nokia has lost its way in the Smartphone race and needs to retrospect its strategies and approach to user experience. N 97, which was being touted as the most advanced multimedia computer has failed to impress and unless, one is die hard Symbian S60 fan, there is very little reason one would opt for the N 97. With no other significant touch screens from Nokia at the moment, there is nothing that customers and investors are looking forward to from Nokia.

http://gizmodo.com/5308440/nokia-n97-review-nokia-is-doomed

The rumour mills are running abuzz with the theory that Nokia would do well to acquire Palm because palm offers Nokia all that it really needs desperately at this point of time. http://www.ubergizmo.com/15/archives/2007/03/nokia_possibly_interested_in_palm.html

Even LG, which doesnot feature as a serious contender in the smartphone business seems to be getting its acts right in that market. http://www.forbes.com/2009/07/22/lg-nokia-sony-markets-equity-technology.html?partner=msn

Nokia seems to be walking the path of Motorola 3 years back. http://www.forbes.com/2009/07/17/nokia-apple-iphone-markets-equity-mobile.html?feed=rss_technology

It’s been a heck of a ride for Apple investors. The stock, which has nearly doubled so far this year and over the past five years the stock has gained an average of 56% a year, an extraordinary achievement. It cannot keep its supply commitments for iPhone. It has already sold 7 times the number of iPhones this year as it did last year. In a extremely competitive smartphone market, Apple is using all its legs to score above the competition: Its Device, the software/UI/Browser and the Applications! Interesting to see how Apple would get the most of this now…

Profiling the slide at Nokia (Part II)

Nokia’s Age of Denial

While touch-screens had always been around, it was the iPhone in June, 2007 that had caught everyone’s imagination with its form, function, features and applications. Till then, Nokia’s N and E Series devices were the ultimate in technology. In Q2,2007, Nokia launched the iconic N 95, a do-it-all smart-phone that captured the imagination of the world. Nokia missed the trend, as it was basking in the glory of N 95! Nokia regarded the Haptile feed as a fad which would mellow down. That was not to be and Nokia realized it the harder way.

August 2008: Nokia launched an offensive against the iPhone 3G by announcing the successor to N 95, the N 96! By then, Nokia had taken note of iPhone’s initial success in US. However iPhone without operator subsidies outside the American shores was a doubtful starter (as proven in the case of India, where the iPhone could not live up to its hype because the carriers (Airtel and Vodafone) did not subsidize it). Positioning the N 96, which was only a few additions to N-95 against iPhone 3G was only a subterfuge. Nokia was trying to play the game on its own terms where as iPhone appeal to the consumers was becoming painfully evident.

July 2009: This was the first time that Nokia played Apple on a level game. The N 97 which was Nokia’s haptile flagship device fared badly against the Palm Pre and the iPhone 3GS. Nokia’s smartphone portfolio was getting depleted and except the E 71 and its other versions, there was a serious lack of a smartphone from the Nokia stable! The fight between N 97 and iPhone was already dubbed as the fight between device and software. Apple with its sexy and neat looks, brilliant browser and UI and Apps store turned the game on the N97. Even Palm Pre with its WebOS was cooler than the N97!

What lies ahead

Nokia will now have to re-think its smartphone strategy in order to stay in the game.
Product design: Most of the Nokia phones look and feel like some other Nokia phone. E71 was a success, they augmented it to E 63, E 72.

A new OS that would make UI and browsing experience pleasurable. There is a space to learn from Apple, Android and even the Palm!

Need to look at open sourcing solutions. While they had the first Apps market (Forum Nokia), they lost the plot mid way and allowed Apple to get away with the Apps Market. Failure to differentiate on Apps and Services was a big mistake on hindsight.

Need to be more collaborative rather than closed in its approach. Nokia’s stiff approach to working with the other partners in the eco-system has cost then dear in the Developed markets.
Mobile Internet may well be the next in devices. Enabling a superior browsing experience is key to greater user acceptability. That is again something that Apple and Palm have perfected.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10545980/1/tech-rumor-of-the-day-nokia- needs-palm.html

Thursday, July 23, 2009

Profiling the slide at Nokia (Part I)

Nokia’s slide in the smartphone segment has been well documented and the latest results from Nokia do not inspire confidence about a quick revival. Nokia’s slide draws a sharp contrast from Apple and its Apps store. Here’s profiling Nokia’s smartphone story.


Nokia’s Decline
Nokia announced a 66 percent yearly drop in Q2 profit while lowering its 2009 market share target for its cellphones. Originally, Nokia had expected market share to rise in 2009, presumably based on a successful launch of the N97 flagship device. However, outside of a core group of S60 diehards, the N97 has been universally panned in both reviews and user forums alike. And with nothing but rumors of an Atom-based Nokia Netbook on the immediate horizon.


Overall YOY sales for Nokia have fallen by 25% to 9.9 billion Euros in Q2. This is 7% higher than Q1, 2009.YOY Nokia shipped 103.2 million devices during Q2, 15% less than an year earlier, but 11% more than Q1,2009. The average selling price was also down from 74 Euros Q2 last year to 62 Euros currently. In Q1 2009, Nokia had recorded less than 100 million shipments for the first time in 2 years. Q2 2009 was slightly better in terms of volumes but the ASPs are southward bound still.


Inspite of aggressive job cuts and other measures such as moving out of non core activities, Nokia is now cutting down its profitability and market share outlook. It is now predicting its mobile phone operating profit margin will match the first half at 11.3% (less than the analysts prediction of 17.4%) and its market share will stay the same as last year (compared to original forecasts of a rise).The stock took a 15% plunge after the results were announced last week.


Analysis
The significant volumes from the lower end have helped maintain the market shares although it is pulling the ASPs down. However it is the smart-phone market where Nokia is taking a big hit in terms of both volumes and numbers. Thus, Nokia is finding harder to stay profitable because of increasing competition in the high end phone segment from the likes of Apple’s iPhone, Palm Pre, Toshiba’s TG01 against Nokia’s N 97 and 5800, which are key support to its margins. Nokia is suffering from low operating margins because it does not have really competitive products at the high end of the portfolio.


Analysts are dubbing this period as Nokia’s Motorola Moment. http://www.forbes.com/2009/07/17/nokia-apple-iphone-markets-equity-mobile.html?feed=rss_technology.

Once a giant of the handset industry, Motorola got stuck with its Razr handset model longer than it should have done, failing to catch on to other innovations that were taking place in handset making, before losing market share in China to Nokia and in the US to Apple.
Nokia seems to now be falling in the same trap. It was late to realizing the popularity of clam shell phones, late to touch screen and now late to the application store as pioneered by Apple’s iPhone, as well as high quality web browsing. The fact that remains is that Nokia has not been innovating and has only been a fast follower.


Services Company
2 years back, when Nokia had suggested a move into services based businesses, the Wall street had welcomed the efforts by a stock price spike. That was the right thing to do. However, Nokia has taken long to do what it set out to do. And its efforts have been largely diffused. Instead of getting one thing right, Nokia tried many and more different things. It launched into Nokia Music Service and Comes with Music, N-Gage Gaming and Ovi Services, Ovi Share (networking platform) and the latest being Symbian horizon (an apps store). Was Nokia doing too many things at the same time? With Nokia’s kind of ability, it could probably carry the gambit as well. The problem perhaps was Nokia trying a plethora of business models, without really doing anything really meaningful. It was a follower and not the original in most of these services. In effect, it was trying to compete, by its sheer size and presence, and not basis its technology leadership.


In many cases, the platforms existed at Nokia, long before competition had stepped in. N-Series phones were regarded as the ultimate edge in technology for a long time. Yet Nokia never regarded applications and software as a differentiating element unless Apple came along with the Apps Store. It was Apple who pioneered the iTunes and Nokia has been playing catch up with its Music store and Comes with Music.


The problem is complicated with Symbain OS. While Symbian is the most robust mobile OS and leads the smart-phone OS market share at 40%, Nokia probably needs to look at a second option to compete with the likes of Web OS (Palm), Android and Apple OS.

Apps Store: 1.5 billion downloads later, the Apple juggernaut continues

Beating the likes of Google, Nokia, RIM and Verizon, Apple has already taken the honours in the Apps store roll outs. It has also sold 1.5 million mobile applications for its iPhone and is counting more. While consumers find easy to buy apps by using the familiar iTunes interface; for apps publishers, the Apps stores provide the most efficient way to sell as operation and distribution costs are nil and the developer can afford to focus his resources in promoting his product on the Apps store.
The SDK 3 platform from Apple is also gaining more acceptance by more developers over other platforms for developing apps. To put it concisely, the competitors are unable to create a world that revolves around their products, a trick that Apple has mastered well.
The only other vendor that understands branding at that level is Nokia but then it is caught up in its own Smartphone problems and the Ovi Store has not had a great start. The other company RIM, continues to focus on the physical device at the expense of apps driven excitement.

Towards energy saving searches: Yahoo!

Google and Yahoo! are the two most prolific search machines in the world. Whenever someone looks up at something online, each click of the mouse makes the backend data centre slightly busier. These data centres index and reference the internet and are the engines of internet. However, every activity at the data centre also emits greenhouse gases.

Both Google and Yahoo! are actively trying to reduce their carbon footprints. Google has Blackle, the all black energy saving user page. By reducing the use of colour (white) into Black, the energy consumption is eased off! In fact, Blackle has a meter that shows the energy saved by using the Blackle.

Yahoo! on the other hand, had rendered itself carbon neutral in 2007 by buying offsets against its footprint. Now Yahoo! is working towards zeroing out carbon offsets. The goal is to reduce 40% in carbon intensity in data centres in 2014.More and more widespread use of the internet will increase the CO2 output. As of today, Yahoo! services 500 million users worldwide. The energy consumption from data centres only in US was 60 billion Kilowatt hour and is expected to become 100 billion Kilowatt hour in the next 5 years. Thus emission from this electronic form is a real problem and reduction a real time issue.

Yahoo is using innovations like cloud computing and virtualization to eliminate the extra and unrequired usage. Thus it is a system that is efficient, more reliable and reduces wastage in the systems.

The other small and efficient way to get cut energy usage is to use the ambient temperature of surroundings and use colder places to increase on the free cooling and reduce the electricity consumption on cooling. All things together: Smarter computers using less electricity smart buildings and smart grid, smart location and Cloud computing and virtualization can help make a difference in reducing carbon emissions.

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Indian Telecom Story (Part XIII):Telco's signal delay in MNP

The implementation of mobile number portability (MNP) is slated to be delayed further, with the telecom service providers informing the Department of Telecommunications (DoT) that the phased roll out is not possible.
Further, pan-India readiness is required for the proper implementation of call routing, according to the service providers who had met DoT officials recently. The operators also mentioned that due to delay in completion of various activities, it would be difficult to meet the timelines for MNP implementation. The DoT had earlier set a September-end deadline for the first phase rollout of MNP in the country.
The service providers are seeking an extension of the date and as delays would be considered as violation of DoT’s direction. This means that MNP would be delayed by another couple of months, sources close to the development said.
Earlier in March, DoT had selected two US companies — Syniverse and Telcordia — as technology providers for MNP in the country. Telcordia will implement the technology in south and east, while east and west would be taken care of Syniverse.
India with over 400 million mobile connections, and an addition of around 10 million per month, is second largest telecom market in the world.
For earlier updates on Indian Telecom refer http://ronnie05.wordpress.com/tag/indian-telecom/

Microsoft brings gesture control to Windows and XBox

Microsoft has been working on gesture recognition as extension on Microsoft gaming console Xbox. The integration of gesture recognition in its gaming console has been named Project Natal. Depth-sensing cameras such as the one Microsoft is adding to the Xbox allow people to control their PCs, game devices, and televisions. Now Microsoft wants to bring Project Natal and its technology to Windows.




Depth camera would connect up to Windows PCs for interacting in terms of meetings, and collaboration, and communication. This was first conceptualized and developed by Microsoft research and is now being commercialized by both the Xbox and Windows units. The Xbox guys and the Windows guys have now latched onto the idea and Microsoft expects the office applications (coupled with Depth sensing camera) can be quite exciting.
In an interview to CNet, Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates, “Using your body to control devices makes a lot of sense. I think the value is as great for if you’re in the home, as you want to manage your movies, music, home system type stuff, it’s very cool there. And I think there’s incredible value as we use that in the office connected to a Windows PC. So Microsoft research and the product groups have a lot going on there, because you can use the cost reduction that will take place over the years to say, why that shouldn’t be in most office environments.”
Gates actually dropped the first hint of Natal during his joint appearance with Steve Jobs at the D: All Things Digital conference in 2007
“Imagine a game machine where you’re just going to pick up the bat and swing it, or the tennis racket and swing it,” Gates said.
Moderators Walt Mossberg and Kara Swisher mocked Gates, saying such a technology already exists and it’s called the Wii. But Gates disagreed. “No, that’s not it. You can’t pick up your tennis racket.”
He later added, “You can’t sit there with your friends and do those natural things,” he said. “That’s a 3D positional device. This is video recognition. This is a camera seeing what’s going on.”
However, there are doubts about Microsoft’s ability to execute such futuristic moves. It was about 10 years earlier that Microsoft had promised voice controlled computers. 10 years and few many generations of processors later, Microsoft has been no-where close to pioneer voice recognition as an input to computing devices. (It would have put some distance between itself and competitors if it would have executed this strategy). Instead all it has done is to release “delta development” versions, which has left it vulnerable to more innovative competitors.
Ref: http://news.cnet.com/8301-13860_3-10286309-56.html?part=rss&subj=news&tag=2547-1_3-0-20

Tuesday, July 21, 2009

1.5 Billion downloads later, the Apple juggernaut continues


Beating the likes of Google, Nokia, RIM and Verizon, Apple has already taken the honours in the Apps store roll outs. It has also sold 1.5 million mobile applications for its iPhone and is counting more. While consumers find easy to buy apps by using the familiar iTunes interface; for apps publishers, the Apps stores provide the most efficient way to sell as operation and distribution costs are nil and the developer can afford to focus his resources in promoting his product on the Apps store.


The SDK 3 platform from Apple is also gaining more acceptance by more developers over other platforms for developing apps. To put it concisely, the competitors are unable to create a world that revolves around their products, a trick that Apple has mastered well.

The only other vendor that understands branding at that level is Nokia but then it is caught up in its own Smartphone problems and the Ovi Store has not had a great start. The other company RIM, continues to focus on the physical device at the expense of apps driven excitement.

Monday, July 20, 2009

Facebook: 250 million users and counting, $6.5 billion in valuation


Digital Sky Technology’s recent purchase of Facebook Common stock has yet again provided a valuation to Facebook. DST’s purchase at $14.77 a share, values Facebook at $6.5 Billion currently. This valuation emphasizes and underscores the status of Facebook as the fastest-growing Internet social networking site’s and its high rank among technology and media industry heavyweights.
While the latest valuation is below the $10 billion valuation set by Digital Sky’s May investment in Facebook, which was for preferred shares, it is significant because, investors have been valuing the social network’s common stock at less than $5 billion in secondary markets in recent weeks. In the weeks prior to Monday’s pricing, investors in secondary markets had been valuing Facebook common stock between $10 and $10.50 a share, or up to $4.7 billion.
The deal suggests that Facebook has a higher market value than many established media and tech companies which generate significantly more revenue than Facebook, including CBS Corp and Salesforce.com.
CBS, which had $13.95 billion in revenue last year, has a market capitalization of $4.06 billion and Salesforce.com had a $4.72 billion market cap at Monday’s market close.
Facebook is expected to breach $500 million in sales this year, and expects revenue to grow 70 percent this year. At $6.5 billion, DST is valuing Facebook common shares at 13 times expected 2009 revenue well above the 2.2x multiple that is common for online advertising-based businesses and even the nearly 6x multiple of Google Inc, the No.1 Internet search engine in the U.S.
Analysts say that Facebook’s lofty multiple was not completely out of line given the strong growth in sales and users that Facebook is generating amid a tough business environment. Essentially, people’s expectations that this could be the next Google.
Facebook recently surpassed 250 million active users on its social network, up from 100 million users less than a year earlier, and vaulting it ahead of rival social network MySpace which is owned by News Corp. In 2007, Microsoft Corp invested $240 million in Facebook preferred shares, snagging a 1.6 percent stake, though that deal also included other elements such as an advertising partnership. That deal had valued Facebook at $15 billion.

Indian Telecom Story (Part XII): Projection of Indian Telecom growth

India could have 500 million internet users, 100 million broadband connections and 100 million connected devices by 2012, provided infrastructural bottlenecks are removed and 3G and Wi Max networks are rolled out early according to Indian industry body representing the IT hardware MAIT.
MAIT has set for itself an ambitious target–Goal 511– for achieving 500 million internet user, 100 million broadband connection and 100 million connected devices by 2012.This calls for strengthening of the national IT infrastructure along with the physical infrastructure on a priority basis
At present, there are 60 million internet users, three million broadband subscribers and about 1-2 million connected devices in the country.
The numbers indicate a 9X increase in internet connections, 33% increase in broadband access and 50% increase in internet connection devices (including smartphones and other connectivity based devices).This would also require early roll-out of 3G and Wi-Max networks.
The Indian political scene and economic deficits would impact the spread and reach of internet across the country

Thursday, July 16, 2009

Microsoft takes on Google as office moves to web

Microsoft Corp will release three versions of its dominant Office software that users can access over the Web, catching up with products that rival Google Inc launched three years ago. The news helped send shares in the world’s largest software maker up up 2.7 percent by midday, more than double the gain in the Nasdaq Composite Index.
It is the latest salvo in an intensifying war between Microsoft and Google.
Google announced plans last week to challenge Windows with a free operating system. Microsoft introduced a new search engine, Bing, last month.
Microsoft is finally making the conversion through the Web-based world. First, we saw that through Bing. Now we are seeing that through Office.Microsoft will offer for free to consumers Web-based versions of its Office suite of programs, including a word processor, spreadsheet, presentation software and a note-taking program.
Microsoft will also host one Internet business version of Office at its own data centers, charging companies a yet-to- be-announced fee. Companies with premium service contracts will have the choice of running a second Web-based version from their own data centers at no extra cost.
The company hopes to make money by using the free software to lead users to its ad-supported websites, including Bing. Analysts have said that Bing’s early signs of success suggest Microsoft may be rounding the corner in efforts to turn around its money-losing Internet division.
Still, a free version of Office could hurt sales of Microsoft’s top-selling and most profitable unit. One of Office’s most popular titles is a home version that sells for $150. It includes the four programs that Microsoft will give away.
“Microsoft is in a tough spot. Their competition isn’t just undercutting them. They are giving away the competitive product,” said Sheri McLeish, an analyst with Forrester Research.The Office division rang up operating profit of $9.3 billion on sales of $14.3 billion in the first three quarters of the software maker’s current fiscal year.
McLeish expects Microsoft to overtake Google in the market as the hundreds of millions of people who use Office flock to try out the Internet version.Microsoft will release the web offerings when it starts selling Office 2010, it next major release of the product, sometime in the first half of next year. Its current version came out in January 2007.
The software maker unveiled an early release on Monday at a conference for business partners in New Orleans. It will be distributed to tens of thousands of testers.Company spokeswoman Janice Kapner said the free Web version will provide “a very rich experience” and probably have more functionality than Google.
Office 2010 is among a wave of upgrades to Microsoft programs planned over the next year. A new version of its ubiquitous Windows operating system is coming out in October and a new version of its widely used email server is also in the works.
Microsoft shares rose 2.7 percent to $23, while the Nasdaq was up 1.2 percent at 1777.50

Measuring Success: Microsoft Bing

Microsoft Bing has been on air for some time now. It has created some flutter and some clutter as well. This post examines how successful has Bing been in its long term approach in its quest to break from third place behind Google and Yahoo!

June is the first full month the Bing “decision engine” has been live. Microsoft positioned the Bing as Decision engines meaning that its search results would allow depth of knowledge and information rather than width.Microsoft said Bing is aimed at online shoppers and will initially focus on helping people make buying decisions, plan trips, research health matters, or find local businesses.

Microsoft is reportedly spending 80 to 100 million dollars marketing Bing but has not publicly disclosed its promotional budget.

Achievement till date: The number of people that used Bing in June for online searches was eight percent higher than the number that used its predecessor, MSN Live, in the same month last year, according to Microsoft. Google’s share of the US online search market was approximately 74 percent.Yahoo! remains the second most popular search engine with about 16 percent of the US market, and Bing is third with 6.5 percent, according to Compete. Figures released in recent weeks by industry analytics firms reveal mixed data, leaving it unclear whether Bing is doing much to close the gaps with Yahoo! and Internet search king Google. Other Internet-tracking firms report different figures, with the ranking remaining constant but conflicts emerging as to whether Bing is gaining, holding, or losing ground.

It’s really too early to tell how Bing is doing; the numbers are really mixed. Microsoft does deserve to pat itself on its back a bit. Bing seems to have had some lift but it is not an extraordinary amount. An increase in visitors is not surprising given the marketing they are doing.

Analysts believe Bing is more likely to lure users away from Yahoo! than Google, which is woven into people’s lives so thoroughly that the company’s name is used as a verb to express the act of searching the Internet.

The next big goal for Bing is not to beat Google, but to beat Yahoo! If they can’t get to number two, then getting past there is much harder.

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

RIM's attempt at Social Networking: Will it taste success



RIM’s attempt at Social Networking is profiled here. However, there are natural and relevant doubts on the efficacy of the idea RIM through the social Media..

Research in Motion is about to launch a new social network for its BlackBerry App World store. The new site is called MyBlackBerry and it will allow device owners to create a social profile where they can share opinions and recommendations for their favorite applications and accessories, the story said. Users will also be able to share tips and tricks for using their devices.
The new site will look more like a user group bulletin board than a true social networking site. The site will be personalized so that people can connect with others using the same device they have. For example, someone with a BlackBerry Storm will be able to chat or share information with others using the Storm.

The new social network site comes as RIM struggles to gain attention for its App World store. Unlike the iPhone App Store, which has more than 50,000 applications and has had millions of downloads, the BlackBerry App World store, which launched in March, only has about 2,000 applications.

The success of social networking through Blackberry handsets doesnot sound to be a winning proposition in face of giants such as Facebook, Twitter, MySpace with dedicated widsets sitting on other smartphones. The website may at best become a Blackberry users P2P platform. That may not however satisfy the need of Blackberry to keep itself relevant in the age of social networking.

Microsoft: Music for free/Download to own service

Starting end of July, Microsoft will offer users the chance to stream music for free and also download to own. Music is an important area for Microsoft and they are looking at launching a music streaming service imminently (also from a view to bolster the appeal of Microsoft Zune). This music streaming service is similar in principle to Spotify.


Users can stream music for free in exchange for listening to around a minute of advertising every half hour but for £9.99 a month, the ads will be turned off. It is thought Microsoft’s offering will be ad-supported too as well as having a paid-for premium service.
Microsoft is looking at how other similar businesses have structured their business models and trying to figure out what will work best for both consumer and Microsoft. The service would be operated and owned by Microsoft, while being promoted through MSN and other parts of the Microsoft network.
The service could be tied in with Microsoft’s Xbox gaming console, though the details of how a partnership would work have not been drawn yet. The addition of a Microsoft-owned music streaming service would tie in with an increasingly consumer focussed strategy from company to make its Xbox 360 console the main “entertainment hub” in the family home. Users are already able to download movies through their console and play games against one another online.
In an increasingly competitive marketplace, Microsoft can bring “scale and a quality of product” to the music streaming scene. The knowledge of the music industry the company had gleaned via Zune and also the player’s technology, had all been incorporated into the service’s development process. Microsoft recently announced it would launch a high definition version of its music player: Zune , but it will only be available in the United States. Microsoft is in talks to identify download partner for its music streaming service.

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

How the cloud will transform mobile apps and why Big Apple may not be too happy about the developments?

The Apple Apps store was the start of something big. While Apple has already registered 1 billion downloads, Palm notched up an impressive million in the first few weeks of launch. Google, RIM, Nokia are following suit. All this is happening in midst of reports that contrary to earlier beliefs, the Apps store is not really creating the kind of stickiness which the Internet marketers were counting upon.
Today the Apps store may not be generating a lot of cash/revenue. Infact, Apps Stores are thriving more on classic freetardonomics and base commoditization than ever. However, it is a space being infiltrated by handset-makers, software companies, and operations/ business support systems vendors, thousands of new and experienced developers, third parties and even carriers. It also is a space that will be and already is being transformed by the cloud, according to ABI Research.
In a report released this week, ABI said that new software running in the cloud will drastically change the way mobile apps are developed, acquired and used, breaking the market free from the constraints of limited computing power. According to the report, this new paradigm could deliver revenues of nearly $20 billion annually by the end of 2014.Web development can enable apps to run on servers instead of locally, so handset requirements for processing power and memory can be greatly reduced and developers will only need to create one version of their app. Certain apps and services, including Google Apps and Amazon.com, already use the cloud, but for the most part, while the industry is trending toward this, these are still the early days.
Many and most of these players, force developers to choose between picking their favorite OS or creating multiple versions of their app. Companies such as Qualcomm have launched open platforms for apps distribution to address this issue, but it still doesn’t solve the problem of taxing processing power and memory constraints. Though there are issues such as access, security, data back up, the main problem with a continuous connection with the cloud is that clouds based apps stop when the connection is lost. New programming languages such as HTML 5 can overcome this through data caching. So while cloud computing becomes more common, apps will become much more sophisticated. Business users will benefit from collaboration and data sharing apps; while personal users will gain from remote access apps, allowing them to monitor home security systems, PCs or DVRs, and from social networking mashups that let them share photos and video or incorporate their phone address books and calendars.
Interestingly, while Apple pioneered the Apps Store trend, it is also most likely to resist the cloud based model and be reluctant to move into a more democratic apps development market. It would be counterproductive for Apple to let the base for all the Apps driven advantage (iPod/iPhone based) to get diluted and hence, would not like to give up the control that Cloud Computing may ask to forsake on their Apps stores/developers. For the rest of the market, however especially wireless operators, for which the cloud can up transport revenues cloud computing should, and likely will, be embraced.

Office in the web: Here comes Microsoft Gazelle

Google’s announcement on the Chrome OS is significant and yet very timely is very curious. “Curious” because on Monday, the 13th July 2009, Microsoft is set to unveil its plans to counter the attack Google previously had launched on it with Google Docs at Microsoft’s Worldwide Partner Conference in New Orleans.
Microsoft Office is “going” to the cloud. The new version of Office, syncs with the cloud, and has the ability to use the cloud without any software.
Earlier, Microsoft was rumored to have a top secret project which was code-named “Gazelle.” Microsoft would run the “new project” in browsers beyond just IE.
So yes, it looks like the Office Web that was first talked about at PDC last year.
And it’s possible that Microsoft could unveil that this new web-based Office will reside on the great domain, Office.com. That site is clearly going through a transition to new ownership right now, and that would make a lot of sense.
Office is obviously the 900-pound gorilla that Google is attempting to slay with Google Docs, but a 900-pound gorilla with a matching web offering will be a lot tougher. And that’s likely why Google wanted to get its own uppercut in first this week. And it’s a strong one. But now Microsoft is going to have to come up with some answers to how it can counter Chrome OS, rather than focus on talking about the new Office.

Saturday, July 11, 2009

OS Wars (Part IV): Sibling rivalry between Ubuntu and Chrome


The launch of the Google Chrome OS is seen primarily as a threat to Microsoft’s legacy. However, Chrome may also splinter the Linux juggernaut just when things were gung-ho with Ubuntu.

If there is one problem that the Linux and open-source community has suffered repeatedly over the past two decades, it’s been fragmentation. There are several different platforms: Solaris, AIX, HP-UX, FreeBSD etc and the list is always growing longer. Based on their regions and sources, users, communities and companies have switched among different Linux distributions several times over the past decade, as one or the other gained prominence.

After Red Hat, Fedora, Mandriva, Suse, Slackware and Debian, from the Linux stable; the bright light forming at the end of that confused and heterogeneous tunnel was Mark Shuttleworth’s Ubuntu. Out of the ferocious Linux distribution wars, Ubuntu has emerged with the seeming strength to take on the rest–at least when it comes to the Linux desktop platform. The growing dominance of Ubuntu (at least on the desktop, the server room seems to have been won by Red Hat) has delivered the Linux community a serious advantage in its ongoing war against the incumbent Windows and Apple platforms because of its ability to give software developers a single platform to concentrate on and polish to a degree not seen previously.

In this context, Google’s decision to create its own Linux distribution and splinter the Linux community decisively once again can only be seen as foolhardy and self-obsessive. Instead of treading its own path, Google should have sought to leverage the stellar work already carried out by Shuttleworth and his band of merry coders and tied its horse to the Ubuntu cart. If Google truly wanted to design a new “windowing system on top of a Linux kernel,” there should be nothing to stop the search giant from collaborating openly with the best in the business. Google’s plans to “completely redesign” the underlying security architecture of Linux could be seen as counterproductive to the purpose of Linux.

While Google has made moves in the direction of open source with its pledge to open-source Chrome OS, the same way it did with several previous projects: the Chrome browser itself and its Android mobile OS, doubts still remain about those projects also. For example, where do they fit in between true open-source projects, maintained and supported by the community, and to what extent are they extensions of Google’s online advertising empire?

Android is a great mobile operating system, second only to Apple’s iPhone platform. But Google still controls most aspects of Android’s development. Also, anyone using Android would have no doubt that the operating system ties in very nicely with Google’s cloud offerings (for example, Gmail). But things are a lot trickier if you prefer Windows Live or other rival systems. Chrome too, is a great browser that I use for much of my daily needs. But it’s mainly still in Google’s hands, and so those of us who prefer true competition to exist in the browser world take great comfort from the fact that Mozilla Firefox is completely independent and not pushing anyone’s agenda.

Who are you going to trust and believe in? The non-commercial Ubuntu Foundation (and wider project), which has developed an open-source operating system second to none and virtually ended the Linux distribution wars? Or Google, which also makes free products (well, mostly) and packages advertising in (sometimes)? Google makes great products. But it’s currently trying to tread a nice middle ground between completely embracing the open-source community and keeping control over software it has developed. That’s an impossible path to walk and one that leaves it open to being criticized for the same sort of arrogance that operating system vendors have been accused of for decades.

Reference: http://news.cnet.com/8301-1001_3-10281966-92.html?part=rss&subj=news&tag=2547-1_3-0-20

Friday, July 10, 2009

OS Wars (Part II): Measuring the Microsoft Response


Microsoft challenged Google’s raison d’etre Search engine, with its own “decision engine”, the game was “on”. Bing has done well compared to the earlier attempts of Microsoft on the search platform. Bing has caught Google’s attention and made some significant strides into the “Search” territory.
Then came the cracker from Google: The Chrome OS! When Microsoft struck Google deep inside (at its Search platform), Google retaliated at Microsoft’s core: The OS! Vintage warfare here!
However, an alternate thought to this subject is that the threat to Microsoft’s OS core was always there! It was only time before someone (and Google) decided to pick upon its open source and cloud computing basics to hit back at the “legacy systems” and proprietary Microsoft model. In short, Google is aiming to render desktop software irrelevant. To thwart them, Microsoft needs Windows to do things that a browser can’t–or do the same things significantly better.
Interestingly, if Microsoft wants some tips on how to do this, they might want to look toward Apple.
1.Essentially, this has been Apple’s challenge all along–Make the Mac experience enough better than a generic PC that it is worth the added cost. The Mac’s resurgence came when it had a strong OS–Mac OS X–combined with iLife applications that really nailed the experience for the tasks that people wanted to do on their computer at the time. Superior User Experience (in doing the same set of things) is an area is one where Windows has been languishing in recent years.
2.Although most people wouldn’t want to give up their favorite desktop applications (Windows or Mac), the Web has been gaining ground. Even areas that were once squarely in the desktop’s domain–such as photo editing, productivity software and personal finance are making their way onto the Web. What Windows really needs is a new generation of killer apps.
3.Microsoft also has to do something that Apple doesn’t–aim for the masses. Part of Apple’s success story has been about choosing its battles and accepting that it can’t win everywhere. The Windows model depends on ubiquity, so it needs answers with nearly universal appeal.
4.One area where Microsoft has been investing is around the area of doing the same things better. It’s focus on touch screens in Windows 7 is an example of this. Although multitouch is likely to remain niche in the short term, it shows the power that a desktop interface can have.
5.Microsoft also needs to minimize the downsides associated with Windows. On that score, Microsoft has made significant strides with Windows 7. The operating system boots quicker and behaves better than its predecessor.
6. On the Office side, Microsoft needs to create software that is enough better than Google that company’s want to pay for it. Next week, Microsoft is expected to talk more about Office 2010, the next version of Office, which is due out next year.
Microsoft is taking a two-pronged approach.
First, it is taking on Google Apps head-on with lightweight browser-based versions of Word, Excel, PowerPoint and OneNote that can run on Safari, Firefox and Internet Explorer. It will offer them to consumers via its Windows Live service–a service that today is free–and businesses will also be able to give the browser-based apps to their workers.
Second, Microsoft is also doing more on the desktop, adding in the kinds of features it hopes will make the Office suite worth paying for.
The path for Microsoft is clear. The big question, though, is whether Google will be able to be “good enough”
Microsoft has some time, but not a ton. Google’s operating system won’t even arrive on PCs until the second half of next year. Plus, for now, Windows has the advantage of legacy application support–i.e. businesses and consumers want to run their existing programs. But to stay in front for years to come, it will have to do better than that. It needs to figure out–and quick–what the next set of tasks users want to do with their computer and how to make them demonstrably better on a PC.
The company also has another/third option as well. It can work on Windows’ successor. It could be that it needs a lightweight browser-based OS of its own.
Indeed, the thinking beyond its Gazelle research project is that the browser needs to be more like an operating system. In that case, the browser doesn’t actually take on the operating system’s complete role, but rather relies on Windows. However, r has other operating system work under way as well, including its top-secret Midori project.
Microsoft may take all three approaches, but hold off on the third one unless and until it needs to. That’s pretty much what Microsoft has done with Office vis-a-vis Google Apps. It was only after large business customers started threatening to go to Google Apps that Microsoft conceded that it needed to offer full-on browser apps.
Ref: http://news.cnet.com/8301-13860_3-10282037-56.html?part=rss&subj=news&tag=2547-1_3-0-20

OS Wars (Part I): Google Chrome - The next gen OS (in the cloud)

Google Chrome OS is a computer operating system, based around the Google Chrome browser, which is aimed at speeding up process across more powerful computers. Google has stated that the software will be fast and lightweight with minimal bells and whistles “to stay out of your way”, much like its search engine and browser. It is being designed to help users get onto the web within a few seconds of logging on.

Google is trying to alleviate some of the frustration inherent in Windows-based computers, such as slow loading times, computer viruses and complicated hardware installation. It hopes to achieve this by making the first operating system for the cloud generation – meaning the majority of the system’s work will be going through the web rather than on the computer.

Google has predicted people will be able to buy the first Google Chrome OS powered netbooks by the second half of 2010. However, because the system will be open sourced, like Chrome the browser, Google will be making the code available to developers later this year. A Google spokesperson said: “We have a lot of work to do, and we’re definitely going to need a lot of help from the open source community to accomplish this vision.”

As the system will be based on Linux and it’s open-source, it is largely expected Google Chrome OS will be free. Google will monetise the service as it gains share with corporate partnerships but to consumers, it should be totally free of charge. Google is in talks with all netbook manufacturers and therefore it is likely that most models, such as Samsung and Sony, will offer the software immediately post launch.

There are two major advantages vis a vis Microsoft’s Windows:

i) As the system is web-based it will offer users total integration with the internet and as more and more applications become web-based, the computer experience would be increasingly seamless.

ii) It is widely expected to be a free service, whereas Microsoft charges different amounts for its various versions of Windows.

Ref:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/scienceandtechnology/technology/google/5778031/Google-Chrome-OS-a-five-step-guide-to-the-new-operating-system.html

Wednesday, July 8, 2009

iPhone 3GS:Blockbuster yet again


From the first assessment, Apple’s iPhone is a runaway hit worldwide. earlier today based on a new set of numbers from Japan.



An analyst report from Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster’s, includes the incredible fact that 38 percent of 3GS customers were upgrading from the original iPhone, validating the idea that the only way for a customer to upgrade from an iPhone is to buy another iPhone.



The report of iPhone 3G S sales is based in part on observations of Apple and AT&T stores in New York and Minneapolis, estimates of the rates of sales, the hours of operation and the number of units supplied to each store, as well as surveys of 283 attendees.



A few pointers to the success of iPhone 3GS are as follows:
1.Roughly one million iPhones sold worldwide in three days, despite activation problems;
2.400,000 sold in the United States, 250,000 in the United Kingdom, an average of 18,000 in 19 other countries;
3.380,000 sold in the first two days (compared with 270,000 in a day and a half last year);
Sales were actually slowed by the approximately 15 minutes it took to activate each phone (sales at Apple stores last year took about 1 minute each);
4.Two-thirds of customers purchased the 16 GB iPhone (compared with last year, when 91 percent bought the top-of-the-line 8 GB model);
5.39% of customers were PC users (versus 25 percent last year);
6.38% of customers in the United States were new to AT&T, as opposed to 52% last year.



Why is Apple dominating the market like this? Quoting Giff Gfroerer, president of text message vendor i2SMS:
“what the iPhone did was give the normobs [normal mobile users] of the world a simple phone that they could understand. The [Nokia] N97 might have the best technology, but you need a Ph.D. to operate it. The iPhone gives the end user what they need in a very simple format and is not concerned with functionality the normob does not need.”



A simple axiom that Apple seems to be following is to give people what they want and they might buy it. In droves. Pretty simple concept. Hard to execute. (If the Nokia and Apple examples are considered)



What is hugely encouraging for Apple is that a survey of 2300 retail stores reveals that Apple has cleaned up in the smartphone market in Japan. This is the first time, when the iPhone craze has crossed the Pacific from the US shores. http://www.tgdaily.com/content/view/43098/145/



While there are some doubts on iPhone’s capability to sustain the Japanese response to the iPhone 3GS (owing to the fickle nature of the industry and the faashion conciousness of Japan), There is no doubt that iPhone could prove popular (if not the best seller) in the internet savvy Japan. They may have to tweek it a bit here and there, but the makings of succesful product are there. http://industry.bnet.com/technology/10002498/iphone-godzilla-swallows-japanese-cell-phone-market/



Already iPhone has beaten Nokia in the leadership of mobile ads. http://industry.bnet.com/technology/10002452/iphone-overtaking-nokia-worldwide/

Monday, July 6, 2009

Apple: iTablets and Camera iPods

Apple's quest for relentless innovation keeps the technology geeks wondering and guessing on its next product line additions.
In what may be seen as Apple's first venture into the world of netbooks, Apple seems to be readying up a Qtr 04, 2009 10'' screen iTablet using Infineon Chips and ARM technology.The Hon Hai Precision Industry is rumored to be producing the netbook for Apple.

Mac's iTablet Concept

In another report/rumour the next generation of iPods are rumored to be getting cameras. Rumors from around the web are citing independent verification that the iPod will receive a camera which only makes sense as an evolutionary step.The iPod Touch seems like the most likely candidate to receive the camera as it is currently the top of the line iPod for Apple. Even more so is that the software to take pictures, record video, and edit the film is already written as the software for the iPhone. Apple has placed an order for a massive number of camera modules of the type that they include in the iPhone. These are inexpensive cameras, in the $10 range likely to be used for the iPods.

Source: http://www.neowin.net/news/main/09/07/06/ipods-to-get-cameras-in-september, http://idannyb.wordpress.com/2009/06/08/analyst-report-10-screen-itablet-in-4th-qtr-2009/