Crystal Gazing: Mobile Technologies that will impact 2009 - 10

Mobile technologies/trends to watch in 2009 and 2010
1. Bluetooth 3.0 —will likely include features such as ultra-low-power mode that will enable new devices, such as peripherals and sensors, and new applications, such as health monitoring. Bluetooth 3.0 is intended to support "classic" Bluetooth, Wi-Fi and ultrawideband (UWB). It's possible that more bearers will be supported in the future. Wi-Fi will allow high-end phones to rapidly transfer large volumes of data.
2. Mobile User Interfaces (UIs) — UIs have a major effect on device usability and supportability. They will also be an area of intense competition in 2009 and 2010, with manufacturers using UIs to differentiate their handsets and platforms. Companies should expect consumer interfaces to drive new expectations of application behavior and performance. Better interfaces will make the mobile Web more accessible on small devices, and will be a better channel to customers and employees.
3. Location Sensing — Location awareness makes mobile applications more powerful and useful and will be a key component of contextual applications. Location sensing will also enhance systems, such as mobile presence and mobile social networking. The growing maturity of on-campus location sensing using Wi-Fi opens up a range of new applications exploiting the location of equipment or people.
4. 802.11n — 802.11n boosts Wi-Fi data rates to between 100 Mbps and 300 Mbps, and the multiple-input, multiple-output technology used by 802.11n offers the potential for better coverage in some situations. 802.11n is likely to be a long-lived standard that will define Wi-Fi performance for several years. High-speed Wi-Fi is desirable to stream media around the home and office. From an organizational perspective, 802.11n is disruptive; it's complex to configure, and is a "rip and replace" technology that requires new access points, new client wireless interfaces, new backbone networks and a new power over Ethernet standard. However, 802.11n is the first Wi-Fi technology to offer performance on a par with the 100 Mbps Ethernet commonly used for wired connections to office PCs. It is, therefore, an enabler for the all-wireless office, and will be considered for replacing older 802.11a/b/g systems in 2009 and 2010.
5. Display Technologies — Displays constrain many characteristics of both mobile devices and applications. During 2009 and 2010, several new display technologies will impact the marketplace, including active pixel displays, passive displays and pico projectors. Pico projectors enable new mobile use cases. Battery life improvements are welcome for any user. Good off-axis viewing enables images and information to be shared more easily. Passive displays in devices, such as e-book readers, offer new ways to distribute and consume documents. Display technology will also become an important differentiator and a user selection criterion.
6. Mobile Web and Widgets — The mobile Web is emerging as a low-cost way to deliver simple mobile applications to a range of devices. It has some limitations that will not be addressed by 2010 (for example, there will be no universal standards for browser access to handset services, such as the camera or GPS). However, the mobile Web offers a compelling total cost of ownership (TCO) advantage over thick-client applications. Widgets (small mobile Web applets) are supported by many mobile browsers, and provide a way to stream simple feeds to handsets and small screens. Mobile Web applications will be a part of most B2C mobile strategies. Thin-client applications are also emerging as a practical solution to on-campus enterprise applications using Wi-Fi or cellular connections.
7. Cellular Broadband — Wireless broadband exploded in 2008, driven by the availability of technologies such as high-speed downlink packet access and high-speed uplink packet access, combined with attractive pricing from cellular operators. The performance of high-speed packet access (HSPA) provides a megabit or two of bandwidth in uplink and downlink directions, and often more. In many regions, HSPA provides adequate connectivity to replace Wi-Fi "hot spots," and the availability of mature chipsets enables organizations to purchase laptops with built-in cellular modules that provide superior performance to add-on cards or dongles.
8. Near Field Communication (NFC) —NFC is emerging as a leading standard for applications such as mobile payment, with successful trials conducted in several countries. It also has wider applications, such as "touch to exchange information" (for example, to transfer an image from a handset to a digital photo frame, or for a handset to pick up a virtual discount voucher.NFC is likely to become important sooner in emerging markets, with some deployments starting by 2010.

World Internet Usage and Population Statistics

www.internetworldstats.com

The great Indian 3G auction

Government of India has settled for a reserve price of Rs.4040 crore for the long-overdue auction of third-generation (3G) spectrum. The minimum bid amount for pan-India spectrum is double of that recommended by the telecom department and aligns with the finance ministry's proposal, as the government tries to maximise the revenue it can earn from the auction. It has been decided that up to seven operators (with one slot being reserved for state-owned telcos BSNL & MTNL) will be allowed to offer 3G services across the country. The department of telecom (DoT) wanted a total of five operators. Executives with major telecom operators said the Cellular Operators Association of India (COAI) - the industry body representing companies that provide mobile services based on the GSM standard - would protest against the decision on the reserve price. Telcos are readying to lobby hard with the government to reduce the base price to at least Rs 3,540 crore per player, as most of them had factored this number in their calculations as both DoT and the finance ministry were close to reaching an agreement on this price. The government would get Rs 24,240 crore from auctioning 3G spectrum to six licencees. While the money would help the government lower the fiscal deficit, he added that the base price of Rs 4,040 crore would be on the higher side.

Is the Government killing the proverbial golden goose out here just to shore in money to lower fiscal deficits (Increased by the magnamity of populist policies)?

Telcos may restrict their 3G offerings to metros and category A circles which has a faster time to break even on investments
It will increase the entry barrier for operators
It will also increase the service costs for customers
It could restrict bidding to the six big Indian telecom operators
It will be quite difficult for new operators to participate in the auction, as they would need to invest an additional $1 billion for the 3G licences, over and above the investments they are making in rolling out their new 2G networks
The higher base price could lead to a scenario similar to Europe where telcos could not recover the costs they paid for 3G spectrum.
The higher the base price, the higher the tariffs, as telcos will have to make a business case of it

The government gains on two fronts: Increasing the Base reserve price by 500 crores per player (Rs.4040 crores against Rs.3540 crores) and increasing the number of operators from five to seven.

In a related development, GSM operators said the government must resolve all issues with allotting 2G spectrum before deciding on the 3G auction.The telecom ministry has decided that it will take a call on all issues related to second-generation spectrum - the airwaves on which all mobile services are offered at present, including the methodology for future allocations, the pricing for this scarce resource and the usage charges for utilising these airwaves only after the upcoming auction of 3G spectrum. Any ambiguity on issues related to 2G, especially in the current business and economic environment, could seriously dampen investor interest and adversely affect revenues that would be raised by the government through the auction process

Smartphones to replace Desktop Phones (North America) by 2011

Enterprises in North America will be supporting more mobile phones than desktop phones by 2011, according to Gartner, Inc. Gartner analysts said that although most users will still also have a desktop phone, mobile phones will become more prevalent and replace desktop voice hardware to become the primary device.

“The adoption and standardization of corporate liable mobile phones in the enterprise has been driven by the use of smartphones, wireless e-mail and the integration of these phones into IP telephony systems, while improved in-building coverage and lower mobile service costs have also played a part.,” said Phil Redman, research vice president at Gartner.

Mr. Redman said that as spending on mobile communications services grows, and soon overtakes that of wired voice services, enterprises will need to plan how they manage usage, support and costs. Although mobile hardware costs are generally less than desktops, mobile services can still cost five times more than an enterprise-wired call and this could represent a huge shift in budget for enterprise communications services.

A Movement called Twitter

For an internet portal just two years in existence, the amount of news that Twitter has been making is like nothing ever before in the history of communications. Sample this:

The micro-blogging site has featured in Time some days back
Oprah Winfrey is the latest celebrity tweeting on the already huge celebrity list of Twitter
Iranians turned to the service to protest the results of their presidential election and get the news out …
… if that wasn’t enough, the importance of the San Francisco-based startup was underlined by the US State Department, which asked Twitter to postpone a planned maintenance shutdown on Monday because of the situation in Iran.
Reacting to the Iran situation, Twitter co-founder Biz Stone said, “It’s humbling to think that our two-year old company could be playing such a globally meaningful role that state officials find their way toward highlighting our significance.”
Access to the popular social networking service was blocked across mainland China on Tuesday afternoon, two days before the 20th anniversary of the bloody Tiananmen Square crackdown following calls for a re-evaluation of the protest movement that have been published on the Internet, and may have prompted the black-out
Twitter has been adding millions of users a month for the past several months and its website received 32.1 million unique visitors in April, according to comScore.
#cnnfail hashtag on Twitter, came out as a result of Twitter users venting out their frustration on CNN for not giving enough coverage to the Iran incident. CNN had to issue an official response to the allegations.

The actual number of users of the micro-blogging service is hard to figure since Twitter can be accessed using personal computers, mobile telephones and dozens of custom-built applications such as the popular Tweetdeck.
The Twitter co-founders have reportedly passed up offers running into the hundreds of millions of dollars for the service and have so far only unveiled vague plans to turn it into a money-making venture.
Fred Wilson, a venture capitalist whose firm Union Square Ventures is an investor in Twitter, made it clear at the Twitter conference in New York on Tuesday that he believes Twitter has a bright— and profitable — future.“Links are the currency of the Internet,” Wilson, who sits on Twitter’s board of directors, told the 140 Characters Conference.
“If you look at the power of Google, and why Google is currently the king of the Internet, it’s that Google drives more traffic to more places on the Internet than anybody else,” he said.
“Social media, particularly systems like Twitter and Facebook that are good at driving traffic out into the Internet the same way that Google does are very important and powerful economic forces,” Wilson said.“It’s a natural thing for services like Twitter and Facebook to eventually figure out how to inject some sort of a paid model into their systems.“It’s the obvious thing to do and if they don’t do it some one will figure out how to do it as a third-party application, and people are already doing it as third-party applications,” he said.
John Borthwick, whose company Betaworks is among the hundreds that have developed tools for Twitter, said it is this “incredibly vibrant ecosystem of applications” surrounding Twitter that is one of its strengths.
Jeff Pulver, organizer of the 140 Characters Conference, said it is too early to tell exactly where Twitter is going, but “I think what we’re experiencing is something that’s much bigger than all of us understand.We’re living in a time where access to information is available to anyone and everyone,” said Pulver, a web entrepreneur. “The advent of Twitter has democratized access to information to everyone.
“When more and more people have real-time information we’re going to see transformations happen that no one expected,” he said. “Businesses will fail, others will flourish and there will be billions of dollars of opportunity created.”

The impact that this 2 year old micro blogging site seems to have in real time world is scary and there is little wonder that Google wants to either buy out or partner Twitter. Twitter’s ascent would not leave Google very comfortable. Would it?

Reference: http://www.livemint.com/2009/06/17131454/From-Time-to-Oprah-to-Iran-Tw.html?h=B
http://www.livemint.com/2009/06/03121331/China-blocks-Twitter-ahead-of.html?d=2
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/mediatechnologyandtelecoms/5351937/Google-chief-hints-at-partnership-with-Twitter.html
http://www.watblog.com/2009/06/18/the-iran-controversy-and-the-importance-of-social-media-communications/

Will N 97 do it for Nokia? (gain Tech leadership)

The 3rd week of June 2009 is momentous in terms of the ground breaking new launches that we would have redefining the smartphone space. Palm is alll set for a return with its highly touted Pre challenging the iPhone. There are guesses and second guesses on whether Pre would be the iPhone killer. iPhone gets the 3.0 makeover which essentially puts it in par on many other departments as far as smartphone capability is concerned. However, iPhone will all be about the Apps that they can bring to the table. Nokia N 97 on the other hand is Nokia's flagship salvo to claim its own technology leadership space in the smartphone category. In as much as it will be against the iPhone, the battle between N 97 and iPhone will be one between Device and Markets. This article com compares the N 97 against the formidable iPhone on various departments.

N 97 versus iPhone
The fight between web-based and mobile-based players has officially started this week. On Monday, Apple announced its latest phone, the iPhone 3G S, which will go on sale next week. And on Saturday, Palm started selling the much-hyped Pre.
This comparison seems like one of hardware vs. applications. If this is a smartphone device market, the iPhone is four year late. If this is an app awareness market, Nokia is one year late. Analysts world over are watching these launches as a toss up between Device driven smartphone market or Apps driven smartphone market.
The Nokia N97 seems to have better hardware, where the iPhone 3G S and its App Store are second to none. The latest iPhone marketing campaign was smart enough to pinpoint the main competitive advantage into their next wave of customers: "there is an app for that."
The average iPhone user seems to behave either as a teen or a teen at heart, and loves having fun with useless and exciting apps thrown away as rapidly as they are downloaded, like a Facebook app. More than 1 billion downloads later, less that 5 percent of those who downloaded an iPhone application are actively using it after 21 days and only 10% of apps retain the audience attention, according to a PinchMedia survey. Nokia's target market demographics may be different, more for professionals and professional use.
The other differentiator for Apple is the "user experience": Understanding it, being in control of it and finding joy in handling it. Something that Apple does perfectly, and Nokia's Symbian-Interface does not do as well. Apple's forte is their vast experience with user industry-leading GUIs.
Neither T-Mobile and AT&T, the two US operators that could have subsidized the Nokia N97, has picked it up (yet?). As a consequence, at more than $600 Amazon price, the N97 is unlikely to be a threat to the latest iPhone in the US
Each of these devices can be bought for far less than the Nokia N97. The 16GB iPhone 3G S will sell for $199. And the 32GB model, which has the same amount of built-in memory as the N97, will cost $299 when the phones go on sale next week. Apple has also cut the price of its 8GB iPhone 3G, introduced last year, to only $99. The Pre, which also has a slide-out QWERTY keypad and a touch screen like the N97, is $199 with a $100 mail-in rebate.But there is a catch; these low-priced smartphones come with strings. Consumers must sign a two-year contract to get the discounted prices. And in the case of the iPhone and the Palm these phones are exclusive to one carrier. Subscribers are also charged an early cancellation fee if they terminate their contract before it ends.Even with early termination fees, the iPhone and Pre are still less expensive than the N97. For example, a new AT&T subscriber buying the 32GB iPhone 3G S will pay $300 for the device. If this subscriber cancels his service before the two-year contract ends, he will pay at most $175. Adding the early termination fee to the cost of the phone, the iPhone subscriber will still only pay $475 for the device. This is about $225 less than what he'd pay for the Nokia N97.
Just look at Sony Ericsson's Xperia X1, which went on sale last year in the U.S. with a price tag of $800. The phone has largely been a flop in the U.S.
Nokia must realize that it can't really compete in the U.S. smartphone market without a carrier subsidy. And it's difficult to understand why the company would not be able to strike deals with U.S. carriers. After all, it is the largest cell phone maker in the world.Perhaps Nokia doesn't think the U.S. market is worth the trouble. Even though the U.S. offers the biggest growth opportunity in smartphones, which also happens to be fastest growing segment of the mobile market, analysts say that Nokia could still maintain a market share position in the 30 percent to 40 percent range by selling devices throughout the world. But the U.S. market represents an untapped opportunity that could prove very lucrative for Nokia. And the longer it takes Nokia to bring an affordable hit phone to the U.S., the harder it will be for the company to get its fair share of the pie.

When will Twitter start generating money through the advertising medium?

Twitter is the million dollar baby and the trillion dollar question is “When will Twitter start generating money through the advertising medium?” . Towards this, I reproduce Biz Stone’s (Founder, Twitter) version of commercial usage, revenue generation, and advertising which he had posted on his blog.

Source: Does Twitter Hate Advertising? (Blogger): May 20, 2009

When we speak publicly about how Twitter might become a profitable business, we talk about the idea of commercial usage and then explain that we're still exploring what that means—that's true. We also say traditional web banner advertising isn't interesting to us which is also true. However, to say we are philosophically opposed to any and all advertising is incorrect.For a long time, we've said that we think there are interesting opportunities related to commercial usage. Businesses and individuals are getting value out of Twitter and we may be able to enhance that. We've just begun exploring in this area—early ideas include account authentication, management tools, and discovery mechanisms. We'll keep you posted.The idea of taking money to run traditional banner ads on Twitter.com has always been low on our list of interesting ways to generate revenue. However, facilitating connections between businesses and individuals in meaningful and relevant ways is compelling. We're going to leave the door open for exploration in this area.Do we hate advertising? Of course not. It's a huge industry filled with creativity and inspiration. There's also room for new innovation in advertising, marketing, and public relations and Twitter is already part of that. In fact, next month I'll be attending and speaking at the 56th annual international advertising festival, Cannes Lions 2009. I'll let you know how it goes.

Essentially, Biz Stone speaks about expanding the value in Twitter (related to commercial usage). Twitter is largely exploring the value that it can create and add to individuals and businesses as a meaningful, relevant and compelling way to make monies. Traditional banner ads are dismissed as a low priority activity which is low in the list of “ways to generate revenue”.