Enter Google Voice

You can often find me saying in exasperation... "there's Internet and there is Google!". It appears that the Mountain View based giant is not satisfied with its Search Stardom and wants to protract the internet technologies to disrupt other industries around the world. Google Voice, though in its infancy has the power to blow away the existing rules of the Telecom game and i daresay, that carriers and operators throughout the world are hawk eyeing Google's moves. 

First there was Google Latitude that made its debut in January 2009 and now is the turn of Google Voice. Both services combined together would serve as a full scale solution to networking, voice and data needs of people around. (Imagine yourself beaming a picture of a new dress that you would like to buy for your daughter to your wife for her approval. You are in New York and she in London or any other part of the world). That scenario with Google can give cold sweat to many other companies around who have stakes in Telecom, Voice, Data and auxilliary services.

Google, signaled what would be the next telecom technology disruption on 13th March 2009 (Read here). Within 5 days, there are half a million blog posts dedicated to Google Voice. Check them here. As i had said, in one of my earlier posts, the art of maintaining Relevance comes very naturally to Google.

Bought in 2007, Grandcentral is reincarnated as Google Voice in 2009, with a few polishes and additions. Essentially a VoIP based network, a user is given an account and a 10 digit phone number, except that there is no phone at the end of this number. Instead the user has to log onto his account and "manage" his calls. He has to specify where the calls need to go i.e either his mobile or his residence number or his voice mail etc. One can also program it such that business calls are routed to office number till 5 O clock and then go to voice mail system directly. So this becomes a single portal of managing all communicational priorities. It can also be managed for customizable features, call screening and controls and solution et all. That is the core of the technology! Out side this, there are features such as 

• Automated voicemail transcriptions — Users have the option to receive free transcriptions of all their voicemail messages.  These transcriptions are fully automated (i.e. no human listens to the voicemail), and are searchable within your Google Voice inbox.

• SMS messaging — Receive SMS text messages sent to your Google Voice phone number on your mobile device and on the web.  Send and reply to text messages directly from your phone or your Google Voice inbox.
  

• Conference calling — If you’re on the phone and receive an incoming call, you now have the option to merge your calls.  Have as many as six people join a single call.

• International calling — Place international calls at reasonable rates from your phone or by using the QuickCall button in your Google Voice inbox.  Purchase credit using Google Checkout and pay by-the-minute for international calls.
  

Read the complete feature lists here

Google Voice is available in its Private Beta option to users of the Grandcentral. With this now, Google is subverting the rules of the game by offering free speech to text messages, Free conferencing, almost free VoIP calls, Reduced International calling rates, and a link up with Gmail. All this is in effect, game changing!

There are the usual and relevant concerns with issues of privacy and the individual exposing himself to a ubiquitous company to such a large degree.The huge increase in personal content handled by one company that excels in mining such data paves a dangerous and rocky road to serious privacy issues.

Google is clearly sending another message to the rest of the telco's and wanna be telco's that Google is not happy with merely being the top of the pile in search and all things on the internet, but that it really plans to take over the communications world as well. Based on previous successes I wouldn't put it past them!

Nokia - Skype: Jinxed as partners?

The MWC (Mobile world Congress) was a spectacle this year as well (as every year!). The Mobile world had a sneak peek into New Technologies, new devices, new services and new partnerships happening around.

One of the most promising partnerships annpounced was that of Nokia and Skype.According to this partnerships, Nokia would integrate the Skype VoIP software with its N Series flagship N 97 on the S 60 platform for its consumers in Q3,2009. This would enable consumers to sync their phone address book with their Skype contacts and make calls over VoIP to them. A computer call would be free and users will pay Skype for voice calls to Cell phones or landlines. Skype as an application is free for download to cell phones. However it would require a 3G service or a Wi Fi zone to allow this service better.

This is a classic case of convergence media being offered to consumers (who now have a choice of making a call through their cellular operator as well as VoIP). Skype is the biggest beneficiary of this partnership as it piggy backs Nokia's reach in geographies where the lap top will take some more time to estanblish itself. Thus Skype, Internet and VoIP will leap frog emergence of lap tops to tap into the VoIP technology.

However there is an unexpected backlash from UK operators, O2 and Orange who obviously view this partnership and the technology ofered being disruptive in nature. The sources cited state that the partnership of Nokia and Skype would wrest away control of their consumers by offering easy access to an application that could hurt their call revenues.

To quote verbatim:

Mobiletoday.co.uk’s source said to them that this was yet “another example of [Nokia] trying to build an ecosystem that is all about Nokia and reduces the operator to a dumb pipe…But if you spend upwards of £40 million per year building your brand, you don’t want to be just a dumb pipe do you?” The source added, “Nokia have tried several ways to own the customer over the years and operators have had to say no.”

The adjectives to describe the operator outrage are "furious" and "venting their anger" amongst others. Operators have also stated that they wouldnot stock up Nokia devices if Nokia doesnot strip the application. Thus we have an interesting situation out here, since Nokia wouldnot want to walk back on its MWC partnership with Skype for fear of a loss of face. However inability to do so, may jinx the N 97, a device where Nokia is betting a lot to fight back on the smartphone platform. It doesnot have a US carrier for N 97. Not having a UK carrier could be worse for them. It needs the operators to subsidize the N 97 for the smartphone users. We may see Nokia walking back on the Skype partnership after all, at the end of it.

PS: One would remember Nokia's earlier attempts at trying to have a eco system of consumers all for itself without sharing it with its eco systems partners. An earlier example was the Comes with Music service which it started short circuiting the operators (who also saw this as a competition to their own music stores).

Wireless technologies that will impact India significantly in 2009

(2G,3G, Wimax and WiFi/VoIP: My choice of wireless technologies that will impact Indian telecom scene in 2009. However, more than the technology and its acceptance, I have focused on the stumbling blocks and hence what to expect out of these technologies.)

In 2009, India should see a great deal of activity happening in the telecom sector. 1. 2G would continue its unabated subscriber addition with another 100 million new users.
2. After a few years since its been in the horizon, 3G would finally see the light of the day.
3. Wimax would see some metro action in the second half of the year.
4. Wi Fi/ VoIP would serve the enterprise segment as the most favored data/voice transfer mechanism

However in terms of mass absorption and usage, more than 98% of the consumers will depend on the 2G network and fixed line access for communications and internet. The consumer acceptance and usage rates would directly depend upon the cost of ownership or per unit costs of communication. From a technology, infrastructure and company’s perspective, the government policy structure, licensing fees, USO levies and usage charges need to be more transparent and less inhibiting. 2009 is going to be an election year in the country, which would mean truck loads of populist measures. The exchequer would try and recover the money from the licenses, levies and usage charges in the sectors such as telecom. If that happens, then the roll out of these technologies could be seriously impeded.

Going back to the discussion on technologies:

2G with its rock bottom tariffs would be the choice of the majority who use mobiles for little more than voice and texting. We have been adding close to a 100 million users for last three years in succession and this trend will continue till 2012. All this subscriber addition would happen through the 2G (GSM and CDMA) technologies.

BSNL 3G services would start by the end of Jan – Mar 2009 quarter and over the next 9 months, we would see the 3G roll outs in most of the metros and some mini metros. However, the Rs.4040 crore 3G license is prohibitorily priced. In these days of recession, companies may not want to bid on this price. I do not see a profitable standalone business case for pure 3G services for any operator in India. Evidence from around the world is overwhelmingly against such a 3G business case. From the consumer perspective, there are a limited number of high profile, high ARPU consumers who would buy into the 3G, but that is a significant minority.

Wimax also suffers from similar licensing issues. The services are pegged at a licensing fee of Rs.2020 crores and there isn’t even a proper policy structure in place. Tata and reliance which have bought Wimax states, are currently limiting their efoorts to metros and Class A cities at present.

Wimax offers wireless broadband access to a 30 Kms radius. This is of significant importance in a terrain like India to increase internet connectivity and in the years to come Wimax may be the technology which will enable internet savvy panchayats. It will beat 3G in costs, but will be limited in its coverage compared to 3G which will have a greater carpet area.

Given the state of legislations, it will perhaps be a year or more, towards the mid/end of 2010, that mobile communications will feature in Wimax.

Wi Fi and VoIP will power the enterprise segments and the growth in this segment will be directly proportional to the office space and lap top sales.

The introduction of these technologies is heavily subject to two other factors

Mobile Number portability which would increase churn at the high end of the users. This has a profitability impact for incumbents
The spectrum release by the government. Chronic shortage of spectrum spaces and their interplay with the defense forces will impact launch dates.

Net of all things, 2009 will be a year which will be remembered as the launch of 3G. However, I doubt whether there will be a large scale activity in the Wimax and 3G space. 2010 may turn out to be the year when real time activity on field happens with these new technologies. A pro active government intent and policy could make a lot of difference to the sector. Our policy makers and leader would need to take a out of leaf of the Chinese government which is doing the 3G full Monty, full steam across the country.

As an after thought, I would like to add a comparison and analogy between Wireless technologies and The railway system in India.
2G would be the general railway (the way we know it, serving majority of the nation)
3G would be the Shatabdi and the Rajdhani, for a select few who are discerning.
Wimax would be the Local trains (The electric ones) connecting smaller parts of a geography.
Wi fi would be the metro rail connecting cities and businesses (Enterprise segment)

Status of VoIP regulation in India

VoIP and its introduction is an eagerly anticipated event in the Industry. My Take in response to a linked in question...
http://www.linkedin.com/answers?viewQuestion=&questionID=327771&askerID=4765290&browseIdx=0&sik=&report%2Esuccess=vfLh7ZiQxNtkwQoO3efsNN1zAgQ8WXmCT24lKBBmlHq_pfcN7JydQUoVP_zdv4b8


While TRAI's recomndations have been tabled at the DoT, it would be difficult to provide any fixed time frame. For sure, there is some amount of lobbying from the Telecom Operators who see VoIP as a threat to already wafer thin profits. DoT is also under no hurry to displease this Cartel. To answer your question, you can expect to see some action on VoIP after the auction of 3G services (expected end of this year). Two things more that you must also factor in: Given High 3G Licensing fees in face of uncertain cash flows, the operators are not too keen on betting big money in 3G. The other thing is about Number Portability which would reduce the stickiness of the customers to these telecom operators. In the face of these two variables, which impact profitability of the operators, 3G licensing is still in some zone of uncertainity.3G Licensing would directly impact VoIP! Hence there are quite a few variables influencing VoIP introduction in India.